Everyone is celebrating the so-called U.S.–Iran ceasefire as if markets are obligated to reward optimism on schedule.

How adorable.

Yes, there is now a widely reported framework for a ceasefire and a broader settlement. But the truly inexperienced always make the same mistake: they confuse headline relief with immediate economic normalization.

Those are not the same thing.

The agreement, at least as currently reported, is still a phased structure—first an immediate cessation of hostilities, then a 15–20 day negotiation window for a final accord, including sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, this is not resolution. It is merely a pause dressed up as certainty.

Markets, unfortunately for the sentimental crowd, price durability.

And durability has not yet been proven.

Oil may have fallen sharply, and equities may be euphoric for a session or two, but supply chains, shipping insurance premiums, and institutional risk models do not reset overnight because diplomats discovered the word “ceasefire.”

Now let us turn to what actually matters: Korea.

With earnings season approaching, there is every reason to expect capital to begin rotating into the Korean equity market immediately—particularly into semiconductors and export cyclicals.

In fact, the KOSPI has already exploded upward by more than 5% intraday on ceasefire headlines, with Samsung and SK hynix leading the charge.

Predictably, retail money will interpret this as confirmation that the rally has already begun.

This is where amateurs usually donate their capital.

The real question is not whether the market is up.

The real question is what foreign institutional money does next.

Watch the foreign desks.

Always.

Historically, foreign investors do not rush back into Korea merely because one geopolitical headline turns favorable.

They wait.

They test whether the ceasefire survives.
They watch oil.
They watch U.S. futures.
They watch earnings guidance.
And most importantly, they observe whether the first relief rally can hold above volume-adjusted support.

Today’s jump is sentiment.
Sustained foreign inflow is conviction.

Those are worlds apart.

My view is rather simple, and unlike most market commentary, it is not intoxicated by a single green candle:

foreign investors will not immediately flip to aggressive net buying.

Not yet.

They are far more likely to let domestic momentum chase the opening rally, allow short-covering to exhaust itself, and then re-enter after at least several sessions of price discovery.

This is precisely how serious capital behaves.

It returns after uncertainty compression, not during emotional overreaction.

So no, I do not expect an immediate, durable foreign-led buy conversion.

I am quite certain they return later—after sufficient time has passed and after the ceasefire proves it is more than diplomatic theater.

Which brings us to the only practical conclusion:

wait at least one full week.

Not because the market cannot rise tomorrow.

It certainly can.

But because one week allows:

– verification of foreign flow direction
– earnings season guidance digestion
– oil stabilization
– confirmation that the Middle East truce is not another temporary illusion

Those who rush in now are trading excitement.

Those who wait are trading probability.

As usual, one group will call the other “late.”

History tends to be less kind in deciding who was actually foolish.